Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 27% for "Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. Full distribution: December 31 27%, September 30 15%, August 31 6%, June 30 0%. The market has traded $6.7M in total volume and resolves Apr 30, 2026. Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since March 2026, has maintained minimal public visibility following injuries sustained in the late-February strikes that killed his father, fueling ongoing speculation about his health and capacity to govern. State media released a short undated video on August 9 showing him in an advisory meeting to address deterioration rumors, after earlier written statements and disputed images. Authorities have signaled plans to release further footage of him in public settings and with military commanders, while procedural and security considerations around high-level appearances continue to shape timing. These developments, combined with unverified reports of his location and condition, form the core drivers of trader assessments on near-term visibility.

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