US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
- December 31
- 84%
- +4.0
- October 31
- 74%
- +1.0
- September 30
- 59%
- −0.5
- August 31
- 35%
- −1.0
- August 22
- 20%
- −6.0
- August 15
- 5%
- −7.0
- August 14
- 2%
- −6.0
- August 13
- 1%
- −3.1
- August 12
- 0%
- −1.1
- July 24
- 0%
- −1.9
- July 31
- 0%
- −1.5
- July 14
- 0%
- −1.4
- August 7
- 0%
- −13.1
- August 8
- 0%
- −10.4
- August 9
- 0%
- −5.5
- August 10
- 0%
- −0.9
- August 11
- 0%
- −0.6
Traders currently price "December 31" at 84% for "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 4.0 points. Full distribution: December 31 84%, October 31 74%, September 30 59%, August 31 35%. The market has traded $13.3M in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. US naval enforcement of the blockade on Iranian ports and Strait of Hormuz traffic remains active following its July 2026 reinstatement amid renewed strikes and collapsed prior ceasefires. Trader focus centers on whether upcoming diplomatic negotiations or a formal Hormuz passage agreement will prompt an official US announcement lifting restrictions, consistent with the earlier June suspension tied to talks. Key variables include CENTCOM operational status, any new bilateral commitments on shipping access, and broader de-escalation signals between Washington and Tehran that could shift timelines before year-end resolution windows. Historical patterns show such blockades often end via executive direction once core security or commercial guarantees are secured.
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