Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 9% for "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 0.5 points. Full distribution: December 31 9%, September 30 4%, August 31 1%, July 31 0%. The market has traded $70.6M in total volume and resolves Mar 31, 2026. US military strikes on military targets at Kharg Island began in March 2026 as part of the broader US-Iran conflict, with additional US and Israeli actions reported through July targeting infrastructure and vessels but stopping short of occupation or full infrastructure destruction. President Trump has repeatedly stated a preference for seizing the island—which handles the bulk of Iran’s oil exports—to pressure Tehran over Strait of Hormuz access, though analysts highlight operational risks, Iranian reinforcements including air defenses and mines, and potential economic spillover. No ground operation or transfer of control has occurred as of mid-August 2026, with discussions of seizure appearing to recede after a June memorandum of understanding. Trader odds reflect uncertainty over any future escalation tied to negotiations or renewed tensions.

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