US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

Traders currently price "August 31" at 7% for "US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. Full distribution: August 31 7%, June 26 0%, June 30 0%, July 31 0%. The market has traded $1.4M in total volume and resolves Jul 31, 2026. The Islamabad Memorandum signed June 17, 2026, opened a 60-day window (extendable by mutual consent) for US-Iran technical talks on a final accord covering nuclear limits, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and related security issues. By late July, multiple clauses had been violated, substantive negotiations had stalled, and senior US officials including the president and secretary of state publicly described the framework as effectively over due to Iranian positions on enrichment, reconstruction funding, and linkages to other regional conflicts. These developments, alongside ongoing diplomatic exchanges and statements signaling willingness to pursue alternative pressure measures if talks collapsed, shaped trader assessments of the likelihood that Washington would formally announce withdrawal from the MOU process before the July 31 resolution date.

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