Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Traders currently price "No Meeting by September 30" at 70% for "Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 8.3 points. Full distribution: No Meeting by September 30 70%, Switzerland 10%, Pakistan 9%, Qatar 5%. The market has traded $4.2M in total volume and resolves Sep 30, 2026. Recent developments indicate stalled progress toward reviving the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, with both sides accusing each other of failing to honor commitments on the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and related issues. As of mid-August 2026, US and Iranian officials have exchanged messages only through intermediaries rather than scheduling formal sessions, amid a US naval posture in the Gulf and Iranian denials of active negotiations. This impasse, following indirect technical discussions earlier in Doha and Switzerland, underpins trader consensus on no meeting by the September 30 deadline. Venues like Switzerland, Pakistan, and Qatar reflect prior hosting roles in the 2025–2026 talks but face reduced prospects given the current diplomatic freeze and competing mediation efforts by Oman and others.

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