Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 11% for "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. Full distribution: December 31 11%, September 30 2%, August 31 1%, April 30 0%. The market has traded $8.4M in total volume and resolves Jun 30, 2026. Israeli officials have tied any broader withdrawal from southern Lebanon to verified Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army control of border areas, following a US-brokered June 2026 framework for phased redeployments from pilot zones. Partial Israeli pullbacks occurred in July, enabling limited Lebanese army deployments, yet Defense Minister statements emphasized indefinite retention of key security positions absent full militant withdrawal. Early August clashes, including Israeli strikes on Hezbollah fighters along strategic ridges near the border, have tested the fragile ceasefire and reinforced trader focus on implementation barriers. Ongoing incidents and Hezbollah's rejection of core terms continue to shape assessments of timelines for complete Israeli forces exiting Lebanese territory.

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