Iran Nuke before 2027?

Traders currently price "No" at 95% for "Iran Nuke before 2027?". The market has traded $1.2M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, damaging or destroying above-ground infrastructure and limiting underground operations. IAEA inspectors lost broad access afterward, with reports showing no verified resumption of uranium enrichment or centrifuge activity through mid-2026. Iran's 60% enriched stockpile remains unaccounted for or buried, while negotiations have produced only limited progress toward verified limits. These developments have created a multi-month setback with roughly four months remaining before 2027, supporting trader consensus around low near-term breakout odds. Concealed parallel sites, rapid covert reconstruction, or undetected retention of fissile material represent the primary pathways that could still alter the outcome.

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