Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 12% for "Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. Full distribution: December 31 12%, September 30 3%, May 31 0%, March 31 0%. The market has traded $2.2M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Ukrainian forces regained control of Stepnohirsk in Zaporizhzhia Oblast during coordinated operations in May 2026, clearing Russian troops from fortified positions and key locations through special forces actions by units such as HUR's Artan. Russian commands had directed assaults, including by the 7th Air Assault Division, to seize the settlement by late June as part of broader efforts to advance toward Zaporizhzhia city along key highways, yet these attempts collapsed amid Ukrainian counterattacks and stabilization of the line. As of mid-2026, Russian forces hold limited positions on the southern outskirts while Ukrainian units maintain presence and have expanded footholds nearby, consistent with stalled Russian momentum in the Orikhiv direction. The September 30, 2026 resolution window leaves little time for a decisive shift in frontline control under current conditions of attritional fighting and Ukrainian defensive posture.

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