US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 19% for "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. Full distribution: December 31 19%, November 30 10%, October 31 6%, September 30 5%. The market has traded $14.8M in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain stalled following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which outlined a 60-day framework for addressing Iran's nuclear program, uranium stockpile disposition, enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access. Indirect talks through mediators such as Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman produced initial technical progress on inspections and sanctions waivers but have since deadlocked over core verification and enforcement issues. U.S. naval measures and reported strikes on Iranian sites have maintained pressure, while Iranian statements emphasize that substantive nuclear discussions have not advanced. Trader consensus reflects these unresolved procedural and substantive barriers, with scheduled follow-on technical sessions unlikely to produce a final agreement absent major concessions before year-end deadlines.

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