Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 22% for "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?". Full distribution: December 31 22%, June 30 0%, March 31 0%. The market has traded $2.1M in total volume and resolves Jun 30, 2026. US pressure under the Trump administration has emerged as the dominant factor in this market, with officials conditioning progress in bilateral talks on Miguel Díaz-Canel stepping down from the presidency. Sanctions targeting Díaz-Canel and senior officials were expanded in June 2026, following earlier designations, amid ongoing energy shortages and economic strain that prompted limited Cuban concessions like prisoner releases. Díaz-Canel has repeatedly rejected resignation demands, including in April 2026 public statements, while affirming openness to dialogue that preserves Cuban sovereignty and the Communist Party structure. No leadership transition has occurred as of August 2026, though scheduled party and state meetings could influence internal dynamics within the resolution window.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.