How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

Traders currently price "8" at 68% for "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?". Full distribution: 8 68%, 9 25%, 10 4%, 13 1%. The market has traded $1.6M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. US military operations in 2026 have centered on major strikes against Iran, including the February launch of Operation Epic Fury and subsequent waves through July targeting IRGC and nuclear-related sites, alongside the January capture operation against Venezuela’s leadership in Caracas. Sustained counterterrorism strikes against ISIS and al-Shabaab in Somalia, Syria, and Iraq, plus naval and air actions against Houthi targets in Yemen and drug interdiction in the Caribbean and Latin America, have shaped the current tally. With no verified expansions to new nations since mid-year and ongoing but contained Iran exchanges, trader pricing centers on eight countries as the most likely total for the calendar year, while nine reflects modest additional activity in existing theaters.

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