Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 37% for "Will Russia capture Lyman by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 3.5 points. Full distribution: December 31 37%, September 30 11%, May 31 0%, December 31 0%. The market has traded $2.9M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Russian forces continue incremental advances toward Lyman in northern Donetsk Oblast amid the broader Donbas offensive, with Russian Ministry of Defense claims of clearing operations and control over roughly half the town in mid-August 2026. Independent assessments from the Institute for the Study of War note unconfirmed Russian strikes near and north of Lyman but no verified entry into the city itself, alongside Ukrainian counter-moves maintaining positions in surrounding settlements such as Drobysheve and Shandryholove. Trader sentiment for capture by late September 2026 remains low due to the absence of a rapid breakthrough, while probabilities for year-end 2026 reflect sustained Russian pressure tempered by Ukrainian drone parity efforts, redeployments, and defensive resilience in a sector defined by attritional fighting rather than decisive maneuvers.

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