Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 12% for "Will Hezbollah disarm by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 0.5 points. Full distribution: December 31 12%, March 31 0%, April 30 0%. The market has traded $3.1M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s July 2026 White House meeting with U.S. officials produced the clearest recent commitment to place all arms under state control, building on the November 2024 Israel-Lebanon ceasefire framework that requires Hezbollah withdrawal north of the Litani River and implementation of UN Resolution 1701. The Lebanese Armed Forces have advanced phased plans for weapons collection, yet Hezbollah continues to reject nationwide disarmament, insisting any measures apply only south of the Litani and linking compliance to Israeli withdrawals and cessation of strikes. U.S.-mediated talks remain tied to broader regional diplomacy involving Iran, while the Lebanese government faces capacity constraints and internal political divisions. Trader consensus assigns low probability to an official Hezbollah announcement by late 2026, reflecting these structural barriers and the absence of verified progress on full state monopoly over arms despite scheduled diplomatic milestones through year-end.

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