Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 9% for "Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 6.0 points. Full distribution: December 31 9%, August 31 3%, June 15 0%, June 30 0%. The market has traded $1.1M in total volume. Israeli forces advanced across the Litani River in southern Lebanon during a May 2026 operation amid the broader 2026 Lebanon War, establishing positions north of the river and issuing evacuation orders extending toward the Zahrani River. Subsequent diplomatic efforts produced a June framework agreement outlining phased IDF withdrawals from select zones north and south of the Litani, paired with Lebanese Armed Forces deployments in pilot areas to enforce Hezbollah's removal from the region. Partial pullbacks from test sites began in July, though full redeployment timelines remain tied to verification of Lebanese army control and Hezbollah compliance with security arrangements. Trader assessments of a near-term withdrawal hinge on the pace of these pilot implementations, ongoing U.S.-mediated talks, and any escalation or de-escalation signals from Israeli security assessments.

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