Iran full airspace closure by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 31% for "Iran full airspace closure by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 2.0 points. Full distribution: December 31 31%, September 30 17%, August 31 8%, August 15 0%. The market has traded $8.3M in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. Recent escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict, including Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in June 2026 and the subsequent breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire with renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July, have sustained partial restrictions in Iran's OIIX/Tehran FIR. Western sectors remain closed to most overflights while limited eastern routes reopened in June, with EASA and other regulators advising avoidance due to degraded radar, air defense operations, and missile risks. These developments reflect Tehran's prioritization of security amid ongoing tensions rather than a blanket shutdown. Trader consensus on a full closure by year-end hinges on whether further strikes or diplomatic pauses expand restrictions before December 31, versus stabilization that permits broader reopening.

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