Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Traders currently price "Gadi Eizenkot" at 53% for "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?". Full distribution: Gadi Eizenkot 53%, Benjamin Netanyahu 28%, Naftali Bennett 6%, Avigdor Lieberman 5%. The market has traded $32.0M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Gadi Eizenkot leads the market at 52.8% due to his Yashar party's strong polling performance ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026, legislative election, where recent surveys show it frequently edging or tying Netanyahu's Likud in Knesset seat projections while Eizenkot leads as the preferred prime minister candidate. His military record as former IDF chief of staff, criticism of the government's handling of the ongoing conflict, and emphasis on national service requirements and a "Zionist majority" coalition have bolstered his position among centrist and security-focused voters. Netanyahu trails at 27.5% amid coalition erosion, war-related fatigue, and persistent legal proceedings, though his Likud base remains resilient. Lower probabilities for figures like Naftali Bennett reflect opposition fragmentation, while coalition-building hurdles—such as thresholds for Arab parties or ultra-Orthodox draft policies—continue to shape trader assessments of post-election government formation.

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