US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)

This market has settled: "August 31" was the outcome, priced at 63% at close. Full distribution: August 31 63%, August 14 48%, July 31 20%, July 18 0%. The market has traded $9.9M in total volume and resolved Aug 31, 2026. Recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz have shaped trader views on an effective US-Iran ceasefire. Following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum aimed at ending direct conflict, Iranian actions against commercial shipping prompted renewed US strikes in early July, with President Trump declaring the prior truce over. As of late July, US Central Command continued targeted operations against Iranian military sites while Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled openness to parallel diplomacy. A 60-day deadline for a broader peace agreement, including nuclear limits and strait access, remains in effect from mid-June. Ongoing strikes, release of an Iranian-American detainee, and statements from Iranian negotiators represent the primary near-term catalysts that could influence whether a verifiable two-week pause in hostilities materializes.

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