Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner

Traders currently price "Byron Donalds" at 99% for "Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.6 points. Full distribution: Byron Donalds 99%, James Fishback 1%, Jay Collins 0%, Wilton Simpson 0%. The market has traded $3.7M in total volume and resolves Aug 18, 2026. Byron Donalds holds a commanding lead in the August 18, 2026, Republican primary for Florida governor, backed by President Trump's endorsement and consistent polling advantages nearing or exceeding 50 percent. His substantial fundraising edge, exceeding $10 million raised, and alignment with the state's conservative base have consolidated support among voters and party activists ahead of the vote. Other candidates, including Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and investment executive James Fishback, trail significantly in surveys and lack comparable institutional backing. Trader consensus reflects this positioning, though a major late development such as a health issue, scandal, or unexpected withdrawal by Donalds before primary day could theoretically reopen the contest in the narrow remaining window.

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