0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Traders currently price "July 31" at 100% for "0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 95.5 points. Full distribution: July 31 100%, August 31 27%, June 30 0%, July 7 0%. The market has traded $728K in total volume and resolves Jul 31, 2026. Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and associated naval actions have kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to routine commercial shipping since late February 2026, with traffic limited to minimal escorted convoys or near-zero normal transits amid war-risk insurance costs and security threats. Iran has repeatedly signaled intent to restrict passage until hostilities cease, while US forces have conducted interceptions, reroutes, and blockades targeting vessels linked to Iranian ports. Brief June diplomatic efforts produced only temporary, sub-normal volumes before renewed strikes and attacks reversed progress. These dynamics sustain elevated risks of full transit halts, with traders assessing whether geopolitical escalation or de-escalation signals will produce literal zero-ship days by key deadlines.

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