1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 99% for "1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?". The market has traded $116K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and Sentry monitoring system have identified no near-Earth objects large enough to release 1-megaton-scale energy on a collision course with Earth through the end of 2026, underpinning the 98.7% market-implied probability of “No.” Continuous sky surveys by Pan-STARRS, Catalina, and upcoming NEO Surveyor missions, combined with orbital modeling and radar tracking, confirm zero credible impactors at this threshold, consistent with historical recurrence intervals exceeding decades for such events. Traders assign near-certainty because any qualifying object would have been catalogued well in advance. Residual uncertainty stems from the slim possibility of a previously undetected comet fragment or an unexpectedly large airburst from a smaller body whose energy yield is revised upward by new observations before year-end.

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