POLITICSLIVE

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon95%

// MARKET-IMPLIED PROBABILITIES

Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 95%; —
Nathalie Arthaud: 90%; +0.5
Marine Le Pen: 86%; −2.0
Fabien Roussel: 82%; —
Édouard Philippe: 80%; −1.5
Bruno Retailleau: 75%; —
David Lisnard: 57%; −0.5
Raphaël Glucksmann: 56%; +2.0
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan: 55%; —
Éric Zemmour: 55%; −2.0
Sarah Knafo: 42%; +2.0
Gabriel Attal: 39%; +1.0
François Ruffin: 34%; −0.5
François Hollande: 32%; +1.0
Marine Tondelier: 30%; —
Dominique de Villepin: 28%; +3.5
Xavier Bertrand: 18%; —
Jordan Bardella: 14%; −4.0
François Asselineau: 13%; −0.5
Bernard Cazeneuve: 13%; +1.0
Juan Branco: 12%; —
Jérôme Guedj: 11%; +0.5
Matthieu Pigasse: 10%; —
Sébastien Lecornu: 8%; −1.3
Manuel Bompard: 8%; —
Philippe de Villiers: 8%; —
Olivier Faure: 7%; +1.1
Gérald Darmanin: 7%; —
Michel-Edouard Leclerc: 7%; —
François Bayrou: 7%; +0.9
Ségolène Royal: 7%; —
Jean-Michel Fauvergue: 6%; —
Karim Bouamrane: 6%; —
Manuel Valls: 5%; —
Jean Castex: 4%; —
Bally Bagayoko: 4%; —
Clémentine Autain: 4%; —
Teddy Riner: 3%; —
Carole Delga: 3%; —
Yaël Braun-Pivet: 3%; —
Laurent Wauquiez: 3%; —
Delphine Batho: 3%; —
Valérie Pécresse: 3%; —
Élisabeth Borne: 2%; —
Michel Barnier: 2%; —
Mathilde Panot: 2%; —

VOLUME

$282K

24H VOLUME

$413

LIQUIDITY

$56K

RESOLVES

Apr 17, 2027

Traders currently price "Jean-Luc Mélenchon" at 95% for "2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?". Full distribution: Jean-Luc Mélenchon 95%, Nathalie Arthaud 90%, Marine Le Pen 86%, Fabien Roussel 82%. The market has traded $282K in total volume and resolves Apr 17, 2027. France’s 2027 presidential election, scheduled for first round on 18 April, features a crowded field after Emmanuel Macron’s ineligibility for a third term. Marine Le Pen’s July 2026 appeal ruling reduced her prior office-holding ban, enabling her National Rally candidacy alongside potential substitute Jordan Bardella. Édouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and Bruno Retailleau have declared, while The Republicans and fragmented centre-left groups continue internal positioning. Recent polls place RN candidates at roughly 35 percent in the first round, with centre-right and radical-left contenders trailing. Candidate eligibility will ultimately hinge on securing 500 parrainages from elected officials, a threshold that could narrow the ballot before the campaign intensifies.

TRADE IN TERMINAL MORE MARKETS VIEW ON POLYMARKET

// MORE POLITICS MARKETS

Democratic Presidential Nominee 202819%Republican Presidential Nominee 202849%Presidential Election Winner 202823%Brazil Presidential Election64%

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.