2nd Largest Company end of August?
- Apple
- 78%
- +6.0
- Company A
- 50%
- —
- Company B
- 50%
- —
- Company C
- 50%
- —
- Company D
- 50%
- —
- Company E
- 50%
- —
- Company F
- 50%
- —
- Company G
- 50%
- —
- Company H
- 50%
- —
- Company I
- 50%
- —
- Company J
- 50%
- —
- Company K
- 50%
- —
- Company L
- 50%
- —
- Company M
- 50%
- —
- Company N
- 50%
- —
- Company O
- 50%
- —
- Company P
- 50%
- —
- Company Q
- 50%
- —
- Company R
- 50%
- —
- Company S
- 50%
- —
- Company T
- 50%
- —
- Other
- 50%
- —
- Alphabet
- 22%
- −1.5
- NVIDIA
- 3%
- −1.2
- Microsoft
- 0%
- —
- Tesla
- 0%
- —
- Saudi Aramco
- 0%
- —
- Amazon
- 0%
- —
- Broadcom
- 0%
- —
Traders currently price "Apple" at 78% for "2nd Largest Company end of August?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 6.0 points. Full distribution: Apple 78%, Company A 50%, Company B 50%, Company C 50%. The market has traded $281K in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. Apple's dominant 77.5% implied probability reflects its established position as the second-largest company by market capitalization behind NVIDIA, with a valuation near $4.4–4.5 trillion amid relatively stable trading in mid-August 2026. Alphabet trails closely in third at roughly $4.2–4.3 trillion, driving its 21.5% odds, while NVIDIA's low 2.9% chance for second place aligns with its sustained lead above $5.2 trillion fueled by AI chip demand. Broader AI infrastructure spending and recent stock rotations have kept the top rankings tight among these tech giants, though no major earnings reports or regulatory shifts are slated before month-end to disrupt the current order. Traders view the short time horizon as limiting volatility that could elevate challengers like Microsoft or Amazon.
Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.