5kt meteor strike in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 73% for "5kt meteor strike in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 3.0 points. The market has traded $312K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. **No at 72.5%** reflects the baseline annual impact frequency for 5-kiloton airbursts from 5–7 meter stony near-Earth objects, estimated by NASA CNEOS and ESA NEOCC models at roughly one event every 3–5 years after accounting for observational incompleteness. No catalogued NEO is on a confirmed collision trajectory for the remainder of 2026, and continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring systems show zero objects posing risk at this energy threshold. Early-2026 increases in reported fireballs involved only sub-kiloton events and have not altered the statistical rate. With 4.5 months remaining, traders assign the modest probability to the chance of an undetected or newly discovered impactor arriving before year-end, consistent with historical recurrence intervals and ongoing survey data.

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