Andrew Tate released from custody by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 19% for "Andrew Tate released from custody by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 2.0 points. Full distribution: December 31 19%, August 31 5%, July 31 0%. The market has traded $222K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. **Andrew Tate and his brother Tristan remain in federal detention in Miami following their July 18-19, 2026 arrest on a UK extradition warrant tied to new charges of rape, assault, and facilitating sexual exploitation.** Prosecutors argue the brothers pose a flight risk and community danger given their resources, dual citizenship, and prior international movements, while defense counsel seeks release on bail with passport surrender and monitoring, citing compliance in prior Romanian proceedings. A magistrate scheduled the bail hearing for August 13, with Britain required to file its full extradition papers by September 16. The US court process, including any appeal or administrative review, now determines short-term custody status amid the brothers' ongoing legal challenges in multiple jurisdictions. Trader assessments center on the immediate hearing outcome and procedural timeline for any conditional release.

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