Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 18% for "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. Full distribution: December 31 18%, September 30 12%, August 31 3%, May 31 0%. The market has traded $10.3M in total volume and resolves Jun 30, 2026. Houthi forces in Yemen, backed by Iran, have driven recent disruptions in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait through threats and a selective naval embargo targeting Saudi-linked shipping amid the broader US-Iran conflict. In mid-to-late July 2026, Houthi announcements led to a reported 34% drop in transits, with some tankers diverting, though the group has denied a full closure and described actions as limited to specific vessels. These moves coincide with reduced traffic from prior campaigns, the formation of a multinational maritime defense alliance on July 30 to protect navigation, and ongoing risks from drones and missiles. Key variables for traders include escalation signals from Iran or Saudi responses, international naval deployments, and any de-escalation tied to conflict negotiations, all of which could alter effective access in the coming weeks.

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