Bank of England decision in September?

Traders currently price "No change" at 91% for "Bank of England decision in September?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 3.0 points. Full distribution: No change 91%, 25 bps increase 9%, 25 bps decrease 1%, 50+ bps decrease 1%. The market has traded $144K in total volume and resolves Sep 17, 2026. **Strong trader consensus for no change at the Bank of England's September 17 meeting reflects the Monetary Policy Committee's July 30 decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on a 6-3 vote, alongside June CPI inflation easing to 2.6% from 2.8%.** The BoE's July Monetary Policy Report highlights upside risks to its central projection of inflation peaking near 3.2% in 2026 Q4, driven by elevated and volatile energy prices amid Middle East developments, with loose labor market conditions providing offsetting disinflationary pressure. Market-implied odds align with this cautious stance, pricing limited immediate policy shifts ahead of fresh data on wages, growth, and inflation. A significant escalation in energy costs or faster-than-expected second-round effects could support a 25 basis point hike, while sharper underlying disinflation might reopen cut discussions.

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