Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
- Lula da Silva 5-10%
- 39%
- +2.0
- Lula da Silva 10-15%
- 31%
- −6.0
- Lula da Silva <5%
- 14%
- +1.5
- Lula da Silva 15%+
- 8%
- −0.7
- Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
- 7%
- —
- Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
- 5%
- +1.1
- Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
- 4%
- +2.9
- Other
- 1%
- —
- Renan Santos Victory
- 1%
- —
- Ratinho Júnior Victory
- 1%
- —
- Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
- 0%
- —
Traders currently price "Lula da Silva 5-10%" at 39% for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 2.0 points. Full distribution: Lula da Silva 5-10% 39%, Lula da Silva 10-15% 31%, Lula da Silva <5% 14%, Lula da Silva 15%+ 8%. The market has traded $316K in total volume and resolves Oct 4, 2026. Recent polling from August 2026 shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by single-digit to low-double-digit margins in first-round scenarios, with smaller shares for candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos fragmenting the field. Lula’s position reflects his established base and governing record ahead of the October 4 vote, while Flávio Bolsonaro maintains support among right-leaning voters despite earlier 2026 controversies involving family tensions and financial inquiries that temporarily narrowed his standing. The spread of remaining probabilities across narrow and wider victory bands for Lula underscores uncertainty over turnout patterns, coalition endorsements, and late-campaign momentum that could alter the final gap in the weeks before ballots are cast.
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