China Annual GDP Growth 2026

Traders currently price "4.0–5.0%" at 89% for "China Annual GDP Growth 2026". Full distribution: 4.0–5.0% 89%, 5.0–6.0% 11%, 3.0–4.0% 1%, 8.0–9.0% 1%. The market has traded $875K in total volume and resolves Jan 31, 2026. China’s economy expanded 4.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, with Q2 growth slowing to 4.3% amid softening domestic demand and continued property-sector adjustment. Official data and forecasts from the World Bank, OECD, and others project full-year expansion near 4.4–4.7%, consistent with Beijing’s 4.5–5% target range set at the March policy meetings. High-tech investment, manufacturing, and exports have provided resilience, while consumption remains subdued and fiscal support incremental. These trends have anchored trader consensus around the 4.0–5.0% band, with limited probability assigned to outcomes above 5% or below 4% absent major policy shifts or external shocks before year-end.

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