Crude Oil all time high by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 12% for "Crude Oil all time high by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. Full distribution: December 31 12%, September 30 4%, May 31 0%, June 30 0%. The market has traded $2.5M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Crude oil prices, with WTI trading near $82–84 per barrel and Brent at $87–89 as of mid-August 2026, remain well below the $147 all-time high set in 2008 amid persistent Middle East supply disruptions from Strait of Hormuz closures and regional conflicts that previously lifted benchmarks above $100. Trader sentiment reflects elevated geopolitical risk premiums offset by expectations of recovering Gulf output, OPEC+ production adjustments, and softer global demand growth projected at 0.6 mb/d for the year. Inventory draws and refinery margins provide near-term support, yet forward curves point to lower averages in coming quarters as non-OPEC supply expands. Key catalysts include any Hormuz reopening agreements, upcoming OPEC monthly reports, and U.S. inventory data that could shift implied probabilities for a near-term surge to record levels.

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