Ebola pandemic in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 96% for "Ebola pandemic in 2026?". The market has traded $689K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Strong containment efforts and the geographically limited nature of the current Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda underpin the 96.3% market-implied odds against an Ebola pandemic in 2026. Official CDC and WHO data show thousands of confirmed cases and over 2,000 deaths concentrated in specific provinces, with no sustained international transmission or cases reported outside the region as of mid-August. High isolation rates, contact tracing, and cross-border measures have slowed exponential growth compared to unmitigated projections, consistent with historical Ebola patterns that rarely achieve pandemic scale. While new case clusters or lapses in surveillance could alter trajectories, the absence of global spread through August keeps trader consensus firmly on "No."

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