Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Traders currently price "September 30" at 6% for "Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 0.7 points. The market has traded $91K in total volume and resolves Sep 30, 2026. Ongoing US-Iran conflict since February 2026, centered on the Strait of Hormuz blockade and targeted strikes, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment for this market. Kharg Island, which processes roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports with a loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day, has faced repeated US strikes and a naval blockade that idled shipments in recent weeks, amplifying global oil price volatility and supply risk premiums. The other islands (Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz) hold lesser direct energy significance but factor into broader Persian Gulf control dynamics. No verified territorial shifts have occurred despite intensified naval activity and Iranian reinforcement efforts; instead, developments center on escort operations, toll proposals, and intermittent ceasefire talks. With resolution set for August 31, 2026, market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on limited near-term probability of Iranian loss of control, as US strategy has emphasized strikes and blockades over occupation. Key upcoming catalysts include any escalation in Hormuz transits or Iranian oil export restarts, which could shift aggregated capital-weighted probabilities.

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