FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

Traders currently price "No" at 97% for "FDA approves Retatrutide this year?". The market has traded $579K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Eli Lilly’s planned Q1 2027 Biologics License Application (BLA) filing for retatrutide, its investigational GIP/GLP-1/glucagon triple receptor agonist, places any FDA decision well beyond 2026. Recent Phase 3 TRIUMPH-1, -2, and -3 data showing up to 28% mean weight loss and A1C reductions at 80 weeks confirm efficacy, yet the standard 10–12 month review clock cannot start until submission occurs. With all core registrational trials now complete but manufacturing and quality data still being assembled, traders assign 97.4% probability to no approval this year. The only realistic path to an earlier outcome would require an accelerated submission and priority review grant, both of which current company guidance and regulatory norms make improbable.

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