Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Traders currently price "No" at 83% for "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?". The market has traded $459K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Friedrich Merz has served as German Chancellor since May 2025, heading a coalition government that has faced persistent low approval ratings and internal strains. Recent developments include a July 2026 cabinet reshuffle that triggered open CDU discontent and speculation about a potential leadership change ahead of September state elections, where the AfD could gain ground. Despite these pressures, the coalition has advanced targeted reforms on health, labor, and bureaucracy without collapsing, and no snap election or formal challenge has materialized. Traders assign an 82.5% implied probability that Merz remains in office through the end of 2026, reflecting the structural barriers to an early exit—such as party discipline requirements and the absence of a viable immediate successor—alongside the government’s continued diplomatic role on issues like Ukraine support. Upcoming regional votes and any further coalition friction represent the main near-term variables that could alter this assessment.

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