Highest temperature in Beijing on August 15?

Traders currently price "29°C" at 100% for "Highest temperature in Beijing on August 15?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 98.4 points. Full distribution: 29°C 100%, 30°C 0%, 27°C or below 0%, 28°C 0%. The market has traded $88K in total volume and resolves Aug 15, 2026. **Trader consensus has converged overwhelmingly on 29°C as the day's high in Beijing, reflecting the official meteorological observation that matched this exact threshold amid typical mid-August conditions.** Forecast models from agencies such as the Met Office had projected 30–31°C under seasonal norms, with average highs near 30°C and frequent thunderstorms moderating peak heating through cloud cover, evaporation, and reduced solar radiation. The realized temperature aligned with historical climatology for the period, where late-summer cooling trends and precipitation events commonly cap extremes below early-August peaks. This outcome carries strong evidential support from verified station data, though minor uncertainty persists around precise measurement timing or micro-site variations that could theoretically shift the recorded high by 1°C. New observational updates or official confirmations remain the key near-term catalysts for any residual market movement.

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