Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?

Traders currently price "30°C" at 100% for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?". Full distribution: 30°C 100%, 28°C 0%, 26°C or below 0%, 27°C 0%. The market has traded $235K in total volume and resolves Aug 14, 2026. Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and supporting global model runs converged on a 30°C daily maximum for August 14 under light southerly monsoon flow, partly cloudy skies, and scattered showers typical of the South China Sea regime. These conditions limited solar heating and prevented stronger warming, producing tight agreement around the 30°C threshold that resolved the market at near-100% implied probability. Official verification from the HKO headquarters station will confirm the outcome, while any deviation would have required rapid shifts in steering winds, clearer skies boosting insolation, or localized warmer advection—developments that ensemble spreads rated as low-probability before the period closed.

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