Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 14?

This market has settled: "27°C" was the outcome, priced at 100% at close. Full distribution: 27°C 100%, 23°C or below 0%, 24°C 0%, 25°C 0%. The market has traded $60K in total volume and resolved Aug 14, 2026. Trader consensus heavily favors a 27°C high in Istanbul on August 14, reflecting stable meteorological forecasts from agencies such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international models showing typical late-summer conditions. Climatological data place August average daily maxima near 27–28°C, with no active heatwave, anomalous pressure systems, or frontal passages expected to push temperatures outside this narrow range. Current observations and short-range model runs indicate partly cloudy skies, moderate northerly flow, and limited diurnal heating consistent with this outcome. A realistic challenge would require a sudden synoptic shift—such as stronger southerly advection or clear-sky radiative heating exceeding model consensus—though the tight spread of outcomes signals low forecast uncertainty on resolution day.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.