Highest temperature in London on August 15?
- 27°C
- 53%
- +15.5
- 26°C
- 25%
- −11.0
- 28°C
- 18%
- +7.5
- 25°C
- 6%
- −5.5
- 29°C
- 2%
- −2.9
- 30°C or higher
- 1%
- −0.9
- 24°C
- 0%
- −4.4
- 20°C or below
- 0%
- —
- 21°C
- 0%
- —
- 22°C
- 0%
- —
- 23°C
- 0%
- −0.7
Traders currently price "27°C" at 53% for "Highest temperature in London on August 15?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 15.5 points. Full distribution: 27°C 53%, 26°C 25%, 28°C 18%, 25°C 6%. The market has traded $93K in total volume and resolves Aug 15, 2026. Recent Met Office forecasts for London on August 15 position a maximum of 28°C as the baseline expectation, driven by high pressure bringing dry conditions with bright spells and hazy sunshine, particularly in the south. However, thickening cloud cover and potential light rain later introduce uncertainty that could limit peak readings. These dynamics explain the market's heavy weighting toward 26–27°C outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of observational data versus model consensus amid above-average seasonal temperatures. Official resolution will hinge on verified daily maximum measurements, with any final-hour shifts in steering patterns or insolation likely to influence closing probabilities.
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