Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 14?

Traders currently price "78-79°F" at 100% for "Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 14?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 90.0 points. Full distribution: 78-79°F 100%, 65°F or below 0%, 66-67°F 0%, 68-69°F 0%. The market has traded $80K in total volume and resolves Aug 14, 2026. Official observations from National Weather Service stations, including Los Angeles International Airport, recorded a daily maximum of 79°F on August 14, 2026, aligning precisely with the market's 100% consensus on 78-79°F. Persistent onshore flow and a strong marine layer suppressed inland heating, consistent with typical August climatology for coastal Los Angeles where sea breezes often cap highs in the mid-to-upper 70s despite regional heat patterns. Model guidance and real-time surface data reinforced this outcome with minimal uncertainty. An unexpected shift to offshore winds or rapid marine layer dissipation could have pushed readings higher, though no such development materialized in the final 24-48 hours.

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