Highest temperature in Madrid on August 15?
- 31°C
- 54%
- +31.5
- 30°C or below
- 31%
- +27.6
- 32°C
- 10%
- −23.5
- 33°C
- 8%
- −5.5
- 34°C
- 2%
- −14.5
- 35°C
- 0%
- −10.6
- 37°C
- 0%
- —
- 36°C
- 0%
- −4.3
- 38°C
- 0%
- —
- 39°C
- 0%
- —
- 40°C or higher
- 0%
- —
Traders currently price "31°C" at 54% for "Highest temperature in Madrid on August 15?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 31.5 points. Full distribution: 31°C 54%, 30°C or below 31%, 32°C 10%, 33°C 8%. The market has traded $109K in total volume and resolves Aug 15, 2026. Forecast models from AEMET and ECMWF show a stable late-summer high-pressure ridge over central Iberia on August 15, 2026, favoring daytime maxima near 31–33°C in Madrid under mostly clear, subsiding air. This synoptic setup explains the market’s strong 59% implied probability on 31°C, with 30°C or below at 22% reflecting modest cooling risks from any weak frontal timing. Recent observations of 37–38°C peaks on August 13–14 underscore a sharp transition driven by shifting steering patterns. Ensemble spreads remain broad due to uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and exact front passage, keeping probabilities low for extremes above 35°C despite the month’s climatological baseline of 32–34°C highs. Updated model runs and official briefings will refine resolution criteria around peak afternoon readings.
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