Highest temperature in Manila on August 14?
- 28°C
- 100%
- +97.5
- 25°C or below
- 0%
- —
- 26°C
- 0%
- —
- 27°C
- 0%
- −0.5
- 29°C
- 0%
- −6.5
- 30°C
- 0%
- −18.4
- 31°C
- 0%
- −40.0
- 32°C
- 0%
- −30.9
- 33°C
- 0%
- −4.0
- 34°C
- 0%
- −0.7
- 35°C or higher
- 0%
- —
This market has settled: "28°C" was the outcome, priced at 100% at close. Full distribution: 28°C 100%, 25°C or below 0%, 26°C 0%, 27°C 0%. The market has traded $60K in total volume and resolved Aug 14, 2026. Persistent southwest monsoon activity has driven cloud cover, frequent showers, and suppressed solar heating across Metro Manila, holding the day's maximum temperature near 28°C according to PAGASA and NOAA-aligned forecasts. This pattern aligns with typical wet-season climatology, where enhanced convection and moisture limit afternoon peaks below the 31–32°C August average. Market-implied odds at 100% for 28°C reflect trader assessment of real-time observational data and model consensus showing minimal deviation. Clearer skies or a temporary monsoon break could allow greater insolation and push readings higher, while stronger convective bursts might cap the high even lower.
Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.