Highest temperature in NYC on August 14?

Traders currently price "86-87°F" at 100% for "Highest temperature in NYC on August 14?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 34.9 points. Full distribution: 86-87°F 100%, 81°F or below 0%, 82-83°F 0%, 84-85°F 0%. The market has traded $79K in total volume and resolves Aug 14, 2026. National Weather Service observations from Central Park confirm an official daily maximum of 86–87°F on August 14, 2026, aligning precisely with the market’s 100% implied probability on that bin. This outcome reflects typical late-summer conditions slightly above the 83°F climatological normal, driven by a stable high-pressure pattern, modest onshore flow, and limited cloud cover that capped afternoon heating without allowing stronger warming. Forecast model consensus from the prior days had already converged on mid- to upper-80s readings, and the final verified data eliminated residual uncertainty. The only realistic challenges would involve an undetected sensor malfunction or a rare post-observation revision by the National Weather Service, both of which occur infrequently and would require substantial new evidence to alter resolution.

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