Highest temperature in Paris on August 15?
- 32°C
- 43%
- +34.9
- 33°C
- 29%
- −15.5
- 31°C
- 15%
- +12.3
- 34°C
- 9%
- −24.5
- 30°C or below
- 4%
- +3.1
- 35°C
- 2%
- −12.0
- 36°C
- 1%
- —
- 37°C
- 0%
- —
- 38°C
- 0%
- —
- 39°C
- 0%
- —
- 40°C or higher
- 0%
- —
Traders currently price "32°C" at 43% for "Highest temperature in Paris on August 15?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 34.9 points. Full distribution: 32°C 43%, 33°C 29%, 31°C 15%, 34°C 9%. The market has traded $115K in total volume and resolves Aug 15, 2026. Recent forecasts from Météo-France and European ensemble models indicate a cooldown in Paris on August 15, 2026, with daytime maxima centered in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius after midweek heat. Increased cloud cover, instability, and afternoon thunderstorm risk are limiting peak solar heating and surface temperatures, with official guidance clustering around 31–34°C at stations like Paris-Le Bourget. The urban heat island effect supports readings near 32–33°C under these conditions, while model spread on exact precipitation timing introduces modest uncertainty favoring the market’s leading 32°C and 33°C outcomes. Updated model runs and observational data will refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
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