Highest temperature in Seattle on August 14?

Traders currently price "76-77°F" at 100% for "Highest temperature in Seattle on August 14?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 81.0 points. Full distribution: 76-77°F 100%, 73°F or below 0%, 74-75°F 0%, 78-79°F 0%. The market has traded $50K in total volume and resolves Aug 14, 2026. Official temperature observations from the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport station, the primary reference for such markets, recorded a daily maximum of 76–77°F on August 14, 2026, aligning with NOAA climatological data and surface measurements. This outcome reflects typical mid-August marine-influenced conditions in the Pacific Northwest, where onshore flow and cloud cover often cap highs near seasonal averages of 75–79°F. Trader consensus at 100% reflects the final verified reading with minimal uncertainty once data was released. Only station-specific anomalies, such as a sensor calibration issue or an unrepresentative microclimate reading, could realistically alter resolution, though historical records show these occur infrequently.

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