Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 15?

Traders currently price "28°C" at 100% for "Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 15?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 76.4 points. Full distribution: 28°C 100%, 29°C 0%, 24°C or below 0%, 25°C 0%. The market has traded $110K in total volume and resolves Aug 15, 2026. Current observational data and forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration indicate a daily maximum of 28°C in the Seoul-Incheon area on August 15, 2026, driving the market's near-certain consensus on that outcome. Mid-summer conditions feature typical monsoon transition patterns with moderate humidity and limited daytime heating from cloud cover or sea breezes, keeping readings aligned with long-term August averages around 27–29°C. Official station measurements, updated hourly, show no significant deviation from model runs projecting stable highs near this threshold. The primary resolution risk remains a late-afternoon measurement revision or localized microclimate effect pushing the recorded peak marginally higher or lower, though such shifts remain improbable given converging real-time data.

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