Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 15?

Traders currently price "31°C" at 100% for "Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 15?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 81.8 points. Full distribution: 31°C 100%, 25°C or below 0%, 26°C 0%, 27°C 0%. The market has traded $156K in total volume and resolves Aug 15, 2026. Official forecasts from Chinese meteorological services position Shanghai’s peak temperature near 31°C on August 15, 2026, under overcast skies with elevated humidity and light winds that limit surface heating. Regional models converge on this value, consistent with late-summer climatology for the Yangtze River delta where daily highs typically range 29–32°C amid monsoon moisture. The 99.9% market-implied probability for exactly 31°C reflects strong trader consensus around these verified guidance products and minimal expected deviation. A sudden clearing of cloud cover or localized urban heat-island effects could shift the official reading by 1–2°C, though current observations make such outcomes improbable before resolution.

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