Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 15?
- 32°C
- 100%
- +67.7
- 33°C
- 0%
- −29.7
- 34°C
- 0%
- −13.4
- 27°C or below
- 0%
- —
- 28°C
- 0%
- —
- 29°C
- 0%
- −2.1
- 30°C
- 0%
- −3.5
- 31°C
- 0%
- −16.4
- 35°C
- 0%
- −1.9
- 36°C
- 0%
- −0.5
- 37°C or higher
- 0%
- —
Traders currently price "32°C" at 100% for "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 15?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 67.7 points. Full distribution: 32°C 100%, 33°C 0%, 34°C 0%, 27°C or below 0%. The market has traded $72K in total volume and resolves Aug 15, 2026. Recent forecasts from models including the UK Met Office and TimeandDate consensus indicate a Shenzhen maximum near 32°C on August 15 amid subtropical monsoon conditions, with scattered thunderstorms, overcast skies, and humidity above 75% expected to limit solar heating and promote evaporative cooling. This aligns with the market's overwhelming 99.7% implied probability for 32°C, consistent with historical August averages and the absence of heat-dome or typhoon influences that could drive extremes. Afternoon convective activity and local sea breezes further constrain variability in this coastal setting. Small changes in storm timing or reduced cloud cover represent the main scenarios that could realistically shift the daily peak into the 33–34°C range before official observations finalize the outcome.
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