Highest temperature in Singapore on August 15?

Traders currently price "33°C" at 100% for "Highest temperature in Singapore on August 15?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 78.4 points. Full distribution: 33°C 100%, 28°C or below 0%, 29°C 0%, 30°C 0%. The market has traded $69K in total volume and resolves Aug 15, 2026. Singapore’s equatorial climate produces typical August daily maximum temperatures of 30–32°C, with occasional peaks near 33–34°C driven by high solar insolation, humidity, and limited diurnal variation. Current El Niño conditions, now strengthening and forecast to influence the second half of 2026, are elevating baseline temperatures above long-term averages, aligning closely with the market’s dominant 33°C outcome. Official monitoring from Singapore’s Meteorological Service and NEA historical records confirm this range as the most probable for mid-August, while extreme deviations remain rare absent unusual synoptic shifts. Trader consensus thus reflects both climatological norms and the absence of forecast signals for significantly cooler or hotter conditions on the day.

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