Highest temperature in Wellington on August 15?

Traders currently price "13°C" at 100% for "Highest temperature in Wellington on August 15?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 92.5 points. Full distribution: 13°C 100%, 9°C or below 0%, 10°C 0%, 11°C 0%. The market has traded $83K in total volume and resolves Aug 15, 2026. Traders have converged on a 13°C daily maximum for Wellington on August 15 as the near-certain outcome, reflecting the latest MetService and NIWA model consensus showing a cool southerly flow with limited daytime warming under persistent low cloud and showers. Official guidance places the peak temperature right at this threshold, consistent with mid-winter climatology for the region where average August highs hover near 13–14°C. Minor model spread around wind strength and cloud cover could still nudge the observed maximum a degree either way before final verification, though current conditions and timing make significant deviation unlikely.

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