POLITICSLIVE

Houthis successfully target shipping on...?

July 24100%▲ 82.5pt 24h

// MARKET-IMPLIED PROBABILITIES

July 24: 100%; +82.5
August 4: 100%; +39.5
August 11: 98%; +1.8
August 22: 33%; +27.0
August 13: 16%; −0.5
August 30: 9%; +3.5
August 16: 8%; —
August 28: 8%; —
August 14: 7%; −2.2
August 31: 7%; −0.5
August 24: 7%; +2.8
August 29: 7%; −0.5
August 18: 7%; +0.5
August 23: 7%; —
August 19: 6%; −5.0
August 26: 6%; −1.5
August 20: 6%; —
August 25: 6%; —
August 27: 6%; —
August 15: 5%; −0.9
August 21: 5%; +1.1
August 17: 5%; —
August 10: 1%; —
August 12: 1%; −5.3
July 25: 0%; −0.8
July 26: 0%; −1.9
July 27: 0%; —
July 28: 0%; −6.5
July 29: 0%; −0.8
July 30: 0%; −1.5
July 31: 0%; −0.5
August 1: 0%; —
August 2: 0%; −0.9
August 3: 0%; −1.1
August 5: 0%; —
August 6: 0%; —
August 7: 0%; −1.5
August 8: 0%; —
August 9: 0%; −0.9

VOLUME

$225K

24H VOLUME

$2K

LIQUIDITY

$300K

RESOLVES

Aug 31, 2026

Traders currently price "July 24" at 100% for "Houthis successfully target shipping on...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 82.5 points. Full distribution: July 24 100%, August 4 100%, August 11 98%, August 22 33%. The market has traded $225K in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. Recent Houthi threats and claimed strikes on Saudi Aramco-linked vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and southern Red Sea have disrupted tanker traffic, with crossings falling sharply in late July 2026 and prompting elevated war-risk insurance premiums. These actions, tied to regional escalation involving Iran and Saudi oil exports, directly influence Brent crude benchmarks and VLCC freight rates as traders price in potential supply constraints of several hundred thousand barrels per day. Shipping lines continue rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, sustaining higher bunker fuel costs and longer voyage times that elevate global energy and commodity price volatility. The market-implied odds reflect real-capital consensus on whether further kinetic incidents occur before the August 31 resolution, with key swing factors including any new UN-mediated de-escalation or intensified naval presence.

TRADE IN TERMINAL MORE MARKETS VIEW ON POLYMARKET

// MORE POLITICS MARKETS

Democratic Presidential Nominee 202819%Republican Presidential Nominee 202849%Presidential Election Winner 202823%Brazil Presidential Election64%

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.