How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%
- 100%
- +11.2
- 4.6%
- 100%
- +4.9
- 4.4%
- 100%
- −1.5
- 4.3%
- 100%
- +1.7
- 4.8%
- 63%
- −4.0
- 5.0%
- 27%
- −0.5
- 5.2%
- 15%
- −1.4
- 5.5%
- 7%
- −3.7
- 5.7%
- 5%
- −3.0
- 6.0%
- 4%
- −1.9
Traders currently price "4.5%" at 100% for "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 11.2 points. Full distribution: 4.5% 100%, 4.6% 100%, 4.4% 100%, 4.3% 100%. The market has traded $284K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. The 10-year Treasury yield, currently trading near 4.66% amid recent volatility between 4.6% and 4.75%, is primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's policy path and sticky inflation readings, with the federal funds rate holding at 3.50–3.75%. Market-implied odds reflect expectations for at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end 2026, fueled by June CPI near 3.5% and new FOMC projections, while forward guidance points to potential cuts in 2027 as growth moderates. Fiscal concerns, elevated term premiums, and oil price pressures from geopolitical risks add upward bias to long-term yields, though softer labor data or faster disinflation could cap gains. Key catalysts ahead include upcoming FOMC meetings, August CPI and employment reports, and any shifts in Fed communications on the neutral rate.
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